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The Founder Files · No.58 · Code 5 Yes / No Season

Warren Buffett spent 1999 saying no while everyone else got rich.

In 1999 Barron's told its readers Warren Buffett may be losing his magic touch. He was 69, down about 23% on the year, and he did not change a thing.

Yes / No SeasonFounderCode 5
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Story

The year the discipline looked like decline.

Warren Buffett bought his first stock at eleven — three shares of Cities Service Preferred, about $38.25 each, in the spring of 1942. Later that year his father won a seat in Congress and the family moved east, and Warren ran newspaper routes around Washington. He says he was clearing about $175 a month, more than his teachers earned. At thirteen he filed a tax return and wrote off his bike as a work expense. In high school, before he graduated in 1947, he and a friend put a used pinball machine in a barbershop, built a small route, and sold it for $1,200. He had roughly $5,000 saved by then — real money in 1947.

Harvard turned him down in 1950. He went to Columbia instead and studied under Benjamin Graham. In 1956 he opened an investment partnership with $105,100 from seven family members and close friends; $100 of it was his own. That partnership became Berkshire Hathaway, and for decades the story was mostly a straight line up. Then came 1999.

The internet companies were running and Buffett would not buy them, because he could not value them. Berkshire's Class A stock fell about 23% over the year while the S&P rose and the Nasdaq gained about 86% — in book-value terms it was Berkshire's worst-ever result against the index. On December 27, 1999, Barron's ran a cover story by Andrew Bary titled What's Wrong, Warren, saying he may be losing his magic touch. He was 69, publicly written off, and he did not change course. Less than three months later, the Nasdaq broke.

The Code

Code 5 — Yes / No Season

Code 5 of 7 · Business Brainwash

You are the index fund. You won't cash out today — you will cash out.

Pick a season of NO to everything misaligned, and a season of YES to everything aligned. Delay is not denial.

  • A season of no. Then a season of yes. Both on purpose.
  • Delay is not denial — learn to love delayed gratification.
  • The SM-ME 500: you are your own greatest investment.

Lessons

Four shifts that make this Code real.

01

Wait for the pitch you can hit.

Buffett's model is Ted Williams, who carved the strike zone into 77 cells the size of a baseball and swung only at the best ones. In his 1997 letter Buffett wrote that unlike Ted, we can't be called out if we resist three pitches that are barely in the strike zone.

Write down the conditions that make something a yes for you. Everything that misses them stops being a hard decision.

02

Refuse what you cannot explain.

He skipped the entire dot-com run for one reason: he could not put a value on the businesses. Not that they were bad — that he could not price them.

Before you commit money or a year, write the one-paragraph explanation of how the thing makes money. If you can't write it, that's your answer.

03

Price the humiliation in advance.

The cost of his discipline was a national magazine cover saying he was finished, at 69, in front of everyone. He paid it and kept going.

Decide now what public embarrassment you are willing to absorb to keep your standard. That is the real price of discipline, and it comes due before the vindication.

04

Tell your worst trade yourself.

Buffett calls buying Berkshire Hathaway his dumbest purchase — a spite trade over an eighth of a point after a tender came in lower than the price he had been quoted. In 2010 he put the cost at around $200 billion.

Say your biggest mistake out loud to your team before anyone else does. It buys the credibility you need the next time you say no.

Data

The compounding started before he could drive.

Buffett was buying stock and running small businesses as a kid, decades before anyone was watching. The scale changed later; the habit did not.

Strategy

The play: run a season of no.

Buffett's advantage in 1999 was not information. It was that he had decided years earlier what a yes looked like, and the internet companies simply did not meet it — so there was nothing to agonize over. He was not being brave. He was being consistent in public while it looked stupid, which is the part nobody wants.

Run the play: pick a window, a quarter is enough, and write the two or three conditions something must meet to get your money, your calendar, or your name. Everything else gets a no for the length of that season, and a no is not a never. That's Code 5 of Business Brainwash — your yes and no season. Delay is not denial.

This week's readThe Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of LifeAlice Schroeder

Published in 2008 after roughly five years of work, about 2,000 hours with Buffett himself and some 250 other interviews. It is the standard source for the childhood material — the paper routes, the pinball route, the Cities Service purchase, the farmland — and it settles the details the recycled listicle versions get wrong. Pair it with the free Berkshire shareholder-letter archive for anything you intend to quote.

Try this today

Write the two or three conditions something must meet to get your money or your calendar. Put them where you can see them, and say no to everything that misses for the next ninety days.

References

Sources for this article.

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Code 5 · Yes / No Season

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